Modeling of the Effect of Socio-Economic Factors on the Accessibility of Medical and Pharmaceutical Care to the Population (on the Example of Sudan)

Abstract

Introduction. The availability of pharmaceutical care is closely connected with the health care system and may be influenced by many factors. The heterogeneity of factors determines the need for their ranking and selection, determining the degree of their mutual influence on each other and on the level of morbidity in the country. The purpose. The aim of the study was the modeling of the availability of medical and pharmaceutical care (for example, Sudan). Materials & Methods. For the analysis, the following factors were selected: share of the state’s population in the total population of Sudan, share of the state’s area, share of doctors in the total employed population of Sudan, territorial accessibility of medical care, growth rates of the pharmacy network in the state, territorial accessibility of pharmaceutical care, share of expenditures on medicines in the subsistence minimum of Sudanese. To determine the degree of influence of these factors on the incidence rate, correlation and regression analysis was used; the models obtained were tested for adequacy, including the normal distribution of residuals. Research results and discussion. As a result of the study, a number of models were obtained, of which the optimal one was chosen according to the corrected coefficient of determination. It was revealed that the main accessibility factors affecting the incidence of infectious diseases are the territorial accessibility of pharmaceutical care, the share of drug costs in the subsistence minimum of Sudanese, and the growth rate of the pharmacy chain. Conclusions. In accordance with the proposed model, it is possible to determine not only the level of morbidity, but also to simulate the level of accessibility of pharmaceutical care to the population of a separate municipality, to develop, based on the analysis performed, certain organizational, administrative or legislative measures.

Keywords: Pharmacy, Accessibility, Medical care, Pharmaceutical care, Modeling, African countries, Sudan.